Climate change and EU security – When and how they intersect

The potential security challenges linked to climate change can make for great headlines. While sensationalist claims about water wars, states collapsing in chaos or the forced migration of hundreds of millions cannot be completely discounted for the long term, intelligent mitigation and adaptation efforts can help avoid the worst of these – and manage the rest. Planning these efforts, however, requires that the likelihood and time frame of climate change impacts are well understood (as much as they can be); that security challenges associated with these impacts are placed in their proper context; and that resilience mechanisms, including security and defence systems, are appropriately organised to withstand potential shocks. And while much analysis is necessarily focused on potential climate-related threats abroad – climactic stressors that can change the calculus of potential conflicts in far-off lands – climate change will also impact security and defence considerations closer to home.